JP Morgan analysts update on Gold prices
JP Morgan analysts on Thursday maintained a bullish outlook
on gold, forecasting prices could reach an average of $5,055 per ounce by the
fourth quarter of 2026.
The forecast is based on "demand assumptions that see investor demand and
central bank buying averaging around 566 tons a quarter in 2026," the bank
said in a note.
"Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further
upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle," Natasha Kaneva,
Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, said.
The combination of a
"Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation
anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging"
supports gold's upside, Gregory Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals
Strategy said.
On the dollar, the bank noted that the rally is
"not a de-dollarization or
not a debasement story, but it is most likely a dollar diversification
story," highlighting that foreign holders of U.S. assets are gradually
redirecting small allocations into gold.
JP Morgan analysts also highlighted that recent market consolidation is
healthy. The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since
August, said Kaneva.
"It's normal if you're paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so
fast ... It's just a very clean story - you have a lot of buyers, and you have
no sellers," she said.
She reiterated a long-term target of €5,166/oz by 2028, stressing that gold
should be viewed on a multi-year horizon.
Spot gold has achieved several record highs this year, with the latest peak of
$4,381.21 hit on Monday, marking a significant year-to-date gain of nearly 57%
and setting the stage for its strongest annual performance since 1979.
